GOP Pres Candidates Breaking Bad

Pols for GOP nomination are lame, or not sufficiently crazy

Update: See also Sarah Posner's Christian Zionists, Bibi, Obama, and Armageddon at Religious Dispatches.

The weakness of the field at this point is comparable to December 2007 when many on the right were trashing Mike Huckabee in the twisted objections then twirling in leading Republican minds.

Sarah Palin is the recipient of similar derision today, though from different players.

As Chris Cillizza wrote then of the GOP field: "Someone Has to Win the GOP Nomination."

McCain won and lost, the target of McCaincon—a plot by authortarian (ostensibly religious) Movement officers to sabotage the GOP nominee for not being sufficientally crazy, though McCain tried mightily and got a bum rap by the right in this respect.

The parallels between the '08 and '12 nomination race are striking.

The most striking analogue is Mitt Romney.

The Ken Silverstein cover story of the November 2007 issue of Harper's seems like it could be rerun today without anyone noticing.

November 2007

Writes Silverstein: “(Romney) says all the right things, his speeches run through the litmus test on conservative issues, but there’s no conviction behind it. …,” said Cyndi Mosteller, a social rightwinger and GOP politico in South Carolina.

Add to this lack of conviction a dose of Christian religious bigotry against Mormons and you have a political Loser, now leading the current pack of crazies. [Palin, Paul, Gingrich, Cain, Pawlenty, and Bachmann]

Let's say Romney wins the nomination. Will he then pull a McCain and court the endorsement of John Hagee, another whack who says the Holocaust was part of God's plan, among other charming nonsense?

ADL in 1994 Hits Crazies

Being Christain Zionist and anti-Tolerance, anti-Pluralistic and just plain nuts, as Hagee is, sits fine with elements of the Lobby now-a-days—now making noise to align with the GOP nominee [certain to be anti-pluralistic] as long as the Christian right-endorsed candidate advocates war against Islam or at least employs the term "Islamofascism" with some frequency.

The ideologues—who may fall together into a motley coalition looking for an endless war against terror, Satan, Muslims, [maybe even South America]—look to conjure some GOP chimera.

But they may find that the vast majority of Americans are not apocalyptic, war-mongering nuts who, as Noam Chomsky wrote in 2002, do not accept the "increasingly desperate claim that everyone is following them in their depraved subordination to power" and more war.

One aspect of the American political culture persisting is the hope that people can compete with power; that the remnants of our democracy are sufficient to knock down a religious zealot like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, a Medicare-destroying ideologue like Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), rightwing billionares like the Koch brothers, and the eventual Republican nominee for president.

Obama Overperforming, McCain Underperforming say early leaked exit polls

See live election results. - As signaled by early exit polling, the Democratic race was a tie.

Obama poised to win the states up to March 4; and wear down Clinton.

- Early GOP exits polls show close race, No McCain KO - Romney and Huckster blocking McCain rout.

- Obama Doing well in early raw exit polls - Evidence of an Obama surge.

Campaign Notes

In what political pundits see as the most extraordinary presidential race in modern history, recent deployments have Americans looking to the electoral arena with passion and hope not seen since RFK and 1968. Some notes:

Edwards

Populist-progressive John Edwards has dropped out the race for the Democratic nomination, and appears poised to consolidate the growing progressive direction of the national political Democratic party, as activists and white men congeal around Barack Obama. However, Hillary’s coalition includes activists as well as strong Hispanic and womens’ support.

Hillary

But Hillary's grandstanding in Florida (in what was supposed to be a state in which no campaigning was to take place among Democratic candidates) reveals a desperate campaign. From the Evans-Novak Political Report:

The combination of Sen. Barack Obama's (Ill.) unexpected landslide in South Carolina and Sen. Teddy Kennedy's (Mass.) dramatic endorsement mean real trouble for Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.). This is not what she expected on a smooth run to the nomination. Her name ID may be enough in Super Tuesday states, but she can no longer be so certain.

McCain

From the Evans-Novak Political Report:

Sen. John McCain's (Ariz.) successive wins in South Carolina and Florida mean he clearly is the front-runner in a two-man race with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Everything is in his favor in the high population states, and he could come close to wrapping up the nomination because of winner-take-all Republican rules. Time is growing short for the right wing of the GOP to stop McCain or even wrest concessions from him.

Huckabee

Mike Huckabee has enough organization and appeal to evangelicals to stay in the race after Super Tuesday. As Huckabee notes in his e-mail sent to supporters today:

Our focus turns now to Super Tuesday. Recent polling shows us in first or tied for first place in Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and Oklahoma… If the Republican nominee appears out of touch with regular voters or has cast votes that were an anathema to his Party, that candidate will fail to unite the Republican Party against the Democrat nominee, no matter who that nominee is. I have what it takes, our campaign is still standing and drawing new support everyday and I am prepared to lead America forward. Spread the word. I am fighting for you and will continue to do so every step of the way.

Obama and Hillary

The Obama and Hillary race will be a clash of political titans that all Democratic activists hope will stay relatively good-spirited and on the high road.

The Obama-Hillary race is a 50/50 bet, and a political junkie’s dream:

Salon’s Joan Walsh writes:

Barack Obama went up with a new ad in Northern California that I just saw this morning, and I have to say it's powerful. It's about healthcare, and he tells a story that's now a staple of many of his speeches, about his mother's troubles with insurance while she was fighting and ultimately dying of cancer at age 53. One noteworthy image in the first frames: A photo of Obama as a child, with his adoring mother, Ann Dunham, who was, of course, white.

Rudy

Defeated Giuliani Endorses McCain
Rudy was his own worst enemy: Arrogant, authoritarian, Nixonian and so enamored of himself that he believed people would flock to him even though he skipped political campaigning.

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John McCain's Whopper on Meet the Press: Bush United Us

Senator John McCain for reasons beyond understanding still gets the red-carpet treatment from the media covering the campaign.

On Meet the Press, after distancing himself from Bush on the salient issues pertaining to Katrina, Iraq and corruption, McCain said this:

"(Bush) led this nation after 9/11 and united us."

Tim Russert let the statement go unchallenged.

Reality check: Were Americans just sitting around waiting for Bush to unite us after 9/11?

Americans were united, the world was united; and Bush took that unity and divided the United States and spread ill will throughout the world to an extent that no American president has ever done in history.

The straight-talking McCain is a joke, and we can expect more political honesty from even the Huckster and Romney than the phony John McCain.

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Iowa Caucuses Take-aways: Change and Sincerity

- A white Iowa electorate and increased youth participation has Obama looking like a winner. (Results at right from The Politico)

- A highly energised Democratic party allies with independents looking for change. Democratic turnout doubles Republican turnout, 240,000 to some 115,000 people participating in the caucuses.

- A still-critical religious right segment of the electorate for the Republican nominee catapulted Mike Huckabee to a solid victory.

- Rudy G. underperforms even the dismal expectations for Iowa.

- Mitt Romney's insincere pandering combined with lots of money still will not play in the heartland with large segments of the Republican electorate.

- Hillary is alive and fighting, Edwards less so.

- John McCain and Fred Thompson holding on, so far.

- Republicans operatives are scared as no one is able to unite the fragmented GOP coalition.

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Novak's Iowa Predictions: Romney and Obama

Update: Iowa's not over, but gearing up for South Carolina, the GOP is sliming its own. Crooks and Liars reports: A holiday card that falsely claims to be from “the Romney family” and highlights Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith was anonymously sent to Republican mailboxes across South Carolina earlier this week.

On to Iowa predictions:

From the Evans-Novak Political Report:

Republicans

1st Place: Mitt Romney
2nd Place: Mike Huckabee
3rd Place: Fred Thompson
4th Place: John McCain

Democrats

1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: John Edwards
3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
4th Place: Bill Richardson

MAL's Prediction

Republicans

1st Place: Mike Huckabee
2nd Place: Mitt Romney
3rd Place: John McCain
4th Place: Fred Thompson

Democrats

1st Place: Hillary Clinton
2nd Place: John Edwards (tie)
2nd Place: Barack Obama (tie)
4th Place: Bill Richardson

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GOP Running on Empty and Away from Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee

Two things scare the bejesus out of GOP operatives more than a united Democratic party in 2008:

Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee.

Fox News, the Republican media organ, is excluding the libertarian, anti-war Paul from a debate the weekend before the New Hampshire primary because, as James Pindell quotes Paul:

"They are scared of me and don't want my message to get out, but it will (get out). ... They are propagandists for this war and I challenge them on the notion that they are conservative."

What the GOP operatives at Fox are afraid of is that Paul will chip away blocks from the Republican coalition needed to be assembled for a winning 2008 presidential campaign. And today's authoritarian, war-at-any-costs GOP does not cut it with Paul supporters, many of whom are veterans.

But the decision to exclude Paul from the debate rather than placate and assimilate him into the GOP fold is, from the GOP perspective, foolish and short-sighted. The GOP underestimates the passion and commitment of Paul's growing supporters and the attempt to suppress Paul is playing right into the insurgent Paul's crash-the-gates appeal.

Huckabee, on the other hand, even as he consolidates the religious right's bigotry block suffers from three tactical political weaknesses: He is perceived to be weak on foreign affairs, weak on crime, and unacceptable to the Wall Street faction of the GOP.

Amusing to watch the GOP, which has used the religious right so effectively the past eight years, have their hidden contempt for the religious right begin to pour out into the open.

Huckabee is worse than Paul in his ability to fragment a winning Republican 2008 presidential coalition that has days away from Iowa eluded the GOP.

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Huckabee Blasts Romney for Negative Ads

Mitt Romney is getting desperate. If Romney gets a poor showing in Iowa, he will go into New Hampshire smelling like a loser, quite possibly dooming his campaign.

So Romney is going negative on Mike Huckabee entering the last weekend before Iowa's caucuses.

A big risk for a faltering Romney campaign with no real choice or promising direction.

Huckabee is using Romney's negative tactics to raise money; and the perceived personal qualities of Huckabee's that have catapulted him into a frontrunner are precisely those lacking in Romney: Positive, sincere, kind-hearted and principled.

From the Huckster's fundraising e-mail:

With only days to go though, we still have a lots of work to do to overcome Governor Romney's organization and his negative attacks. He has outspent us 20 to 1 and nearly everyone I meet has seen one of his negative and false attack ads about me or has received a desperate piece of direct mail from his campaign that makes me sound like I should be run out of Iowa all of the way back to Arkansas.

In political consultant lingo, Governor Romney's campaign is trying to "define me" for voters. The thinking goes, if you run enough negative attack ads, people will begin to believe what they hear and will decide to stay home on Caucus night. It is an old trick in politics and probably one of the worst. Wouldn't it be better if Governor Romney spent his energy and money trying to define himself?

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Huckabee's Standard GOP Divisive, Bigoted Appeal

Update: Robert Novak in the Evans-Novak Political Report sums up the Huckster thusly: "Huckabee's nomination odds very slim".

The GOP brass does not want this guy to win.

Mike Huckabee's predictable, no-more-mister-nice-guy degeneration into GOP appeals to bigotry and chauvinism have begun in earnest as he attempts to secure frontrunner status in the early GOP primaries.

From the Huckster's fundraiser e-mail:

... the Human Life amendment, the FairTax, securing our borders, ending sanctuary cities, education reform, building on the successes of the Surge in Iraq ... are the issues voters are talking about here in Iowa and elsewhere.

Securing our borders and ending sanctuary cities?

Surely, these are not the public policy prescriptions for working families trying to secure a better life for their children.

But those damn Mexicans and big-city mayors play well to the GOP base in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida as establishment Republicans panic that Huckabee just might just surge ahead these next few weeks.

Typical post-Holiday conversation among neighbors: How's the family, Joe?

- Well, a bit concerned about not having the"Human Life Amendment," and giving the surge in Iraq another chance to bring Iraqis together.

- Ah, yep; me too.

Democrats wish the Huckster luck in his campaign.

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GOP Pres Candidates Looking Bad

Update II: The GOP is not so hot on the Huckster:

- Rush at War with the Huckster.

- Condi Rice: Huckster 'simply ludicrous'.

- National Review's Rich Lowry: "Huckacide"

- Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer: "overdose of public piety," "scriptural literalism,"

- Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes: Huckster "seems to believe the best foreign policy is one guided by the Golden Rule;" [maybe the Huckster is dangerous; if the guy starts campaigning on human rights and compassion, look out, though I doubt that will happen].

Update: Arianna Huffington has a piece comparing the Huckster to Frankenstein running amok and leading the pack in the GOP primary. Writes Huffington:

With Mike Huckabee's continuing surge, the Republican Party now has an Iowa front-runner whose religious beliefs are virtually identical to those of George Bush. He's anti-choice, born-again, against gay-marriage, and gets political advice directly from God.

So why is the Republican establishment suddenly in a state of near-apoplexy about Mike Huckabee? Shouldn't they be happy? They've been cultivating evangelicals and fundamentalists for 30 years. Now they finally have a candidate who's truly part of the movement. So what's the problem?

Actually, that is the problem. The evangelical crowd was fine when it was just a resource to be cynically exploited every few years in demagogic anti-gay get-out-the-vote campaigns. But now the holy-rolling monster the GOP's Dr. Frankensteins have created has thrown off the shackles, fled the lab, and is currently leading in Iowa. And the party doesn't know what to do.

In the 2008 election that is indisputably a challenging historical period for the GOP to begin with, the top five candidates for the GOP presidential nomination all present major problems in assembling a winning GOP coalition in the general election, and even two weeks away from the Iowa caucuses no candidate looks like a winner.

But as Chris Cillizza says: Someone Has to Win the GOP Nomination.

Below is Cillizza's take on the top five GOP presidential candidates with additional weaknesses (most previously published) added in brackets.

Rudy Giuliani isn't positioned to win a single state before Florida's Jan. 29 primary. [James Dobson, the leading religious right leader of the Focus on the Family group that self-consciously rallies religious right voters has made clear that Rudy is political anathema; hence Rudy will perform badly with the religious right; and Rudy’s past positions on affirmative action, abortion, civil right for gays, and immigration will kill his candidacy, no matter how often he portrays his inner-jerk persona in an attempt to appear tough.]

Mitt Romney has fallen behind in Iowa and his flip flops on issues like abortion and gay rights make him unacceptable to the Republican base. [As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney was even more pro-choice and pro-civil rights for gays than Rudy. The massive effort underway to convert him into a rightwinger won’t fly (detailed in a Harper’s (November) piece by Ken Silverstein). As quoted by Silverstein: “(Romney) says all the right things, his speeches run through the litmus test on conservative issues, but there’s no conviction behind it. …,” said Cyndi Mosteller, a social rightwinger and GOP politico in South Carolina. Add to that Christian religious bigotry against Mormons and you have a political loser.] Update: Romney drawing heat for falsely claiming he and his father marched with Martin Luther King, adding to the growing perception that Romney will do and say much anything to further his political ambitions. See also NYT's Romney Learns That ‘Facts Are Stubborn Things’.

Mike Huckabee is surging in Iowa but doesn't have the money or organization to take advantage of a win in the Hawkeye State.
[The rapist-pardoning Huckster is a divisive fake just dying to be found out. Even the Republican establishment has blasted the guy. Provincial, ignorant of foreign affairs, his success in the GOP race thus far has depended directly upon his below-the-radar-and-ascending appeals to the religious right, and his ability to mount a positive, above-the-fray campaign as the other Republicans competed for who is the most mean-spirited in advocating for draconian measures such as more torture, more Gitmo prisons, more war, more fences, and more trashing of Mexicans as Karl Rove's dream of a GOP appeal to Hispanics evaporates. Add to this that he would be deficient in traditional GOP political strengths in foreign affairs and tough-on-crime appeals, and the Huckster would be a goner in the general election.]

John McCain is running a single-state strategy in New Hampshire, but in that state he trails Romney by double digits. ["Speaking as a private individual, I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," said James Dobson. Few religious right leaders have forgiven McCain for his wildly unpopular (in Republican circles) McCain/Feingold bill, and his April 9, 2000 speech trashing the religious right (that’s the Robertson/Falwell “agents of intolerance” speech). McCain would perform worse than Rudy; let's hope for Joe-mentum for McCain.]

Fred Thompson doesn't seem to care much whether he wins or loses. [As a late September piece in The Politico notes, quoting Dobson: "Isn’t Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different definitions of marriage in the U.S., favors McCain-Feingold, won’t talk at all about what he believes, and can’t speak his way out of a paper bag on the campaign trail?" Dobson asked in the message, obtained by The Associated Press. "He has no passion, no zeal and no apparent ‘want to.’ And yet he is apparently the Great Hope that burns in the breasts of many conservative Christians? Well, not for me, my brothers. Not for me!" Grandpa Fred is dead, and he comes across as tired and wooden: An older version of an unenergetic John Kerry.] And as Cillizza notes: Apathetic.

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Fleischer and Romney attacks Huckabee for criticizing Bush.

Ari Fleischer ('Lie-sure') and Mitt Romney dutifully spill the talking points about George W. Bush:

- He keeps us safe,

- And the safe course for Republican presidential candidates is to repeat the above, and not criticize the performance of George W. Bush, endangering his legacy :).

Romney defended Bush Sunday on Meet the Press, blasting break-out candidate Mike Huckabee for branding Bush's foreign policy as arrogant, and demonstrating a "bunker mentality."

"That's an insult to the president, and Mike Huckabee should apologize to the president," Romney said.

And from ThinkProgress:

President Bush’s former spokesman Ari Fleischer today called Mike Huckabee’s Foreign Affairs comments ["... American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude...") “unwarranted and unwise“:

There is much to like about Mike Huckabee. But he will serve Republican primary voters, and our nation, better if he focused his criticisms on the Democrats who will run against our eventual nominee and not on the President who has kept us safe.

Yesterday, Mitt Romney also said that Huckabee “ought to be saying thank you to the president for keeping us safe these last six years.”
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Chuck Norris and the Democrats

Chuck Norris officially endorsed Mike Huckabee for President some weeks ago, and whatever you think of either person politically, there is obvious instruction for the Democratic nominee in 2008:

Don't be a wuss. Your base hates a wuss. The Constitution and the revolutionaries who wrote and fought for it did not contemplate wussies. We were not born in fear. We want as president someone willing to defend what Robert Parry calls "a higher plane of principle," like that which gave birth to America.

Or as Arianna Huffington writes: Democrats Need To Admit They Have a Problem: They Are Addicted to Backing Down.

No one ever sent John Kerry (Christ, he still sucks) or Nancy Pelosi that memo.

So, some Chuck Norris jokes, courtesy of my nephew, are in order:

- Chuck Norris does not sleep. He waits.

- Chuck Norris doesn't read books. He stares them down until he gets the information he wants.

- Chuck Norris has already been to Mars; that's why there are no signs of life there.

- When the boogeyman goes to sleep, he checks his closet for Chuck Norris.

- The best part of waking up is not Folgers in your cup, but knowing that Chuck Norris didn't kill you in your sleep.

- Chuck Norris' tears cure cancer. Too bad he has never cried. Ever.

- When Bruce Banner gets mad, he turns into the Hulk. When the Hulk gets mad, he turns into Chuck Norris.

- If you ask Chuck Norris what time it is, he always says, "Two seconds till." After you ask, "Two seconds to what?", he roundhouse kicks you in the face.

- Rather than being birthed like a normal child, Chuck Norris instead decided to punch his way out of his mother's womb. Shortly thereafter he grew a beard.

- Chuck Norris lost his virginity before his dad did.

- Before science was invented it was once believed that autumn occurred when, Chuck Norris roundhouse kicked every tree in existence.

- Chuck Norris does not use spell check. If he happens to misspell a word, Oxford will simply change the actual spelling of it.

- Mr. T. once defeated Chuck Norris in a game of Tic-Tac-Toe. In retaliation, Chuck Norris invented racism.

- Chuck Norris built a time machine and went back in time to stop the JFK assassination. As Oswald shot, Chuck met all three bullets with his beard, deflecting them. JFK's head exploded out of sheer amazement.

- Brett Favre can throw a football over 50 yards. Chuck Norris can throw Brett Favre even further.

That last one is just crazy, buy let's hope the presumptive Democratic nominee for the president of the United States—Barack Obama, gets the message:

In the face of war, terrorism, liars, bigots, Constitution-destroying presidents, and corporations: Do not back down, ever.

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Huckabee and Paul Impress, Romney and Thompson Flop in CNN/YouTube Debate

Update: For those of you not pretending to think like a Republican primary voter, Salon has two analyses, and here's Nichols' take:

- What you missed while watching "Chad Vader" by Michael Scherer

- The godawful GOP debate by Walter Shapiro

- Out-Tancredoing Tancredo at GOP's Anti-Immigrant Debate by John Nichols

As a libertarian liberal watching the GOP's CNN/YouTube debate trying to think as a Republican primary voter, here are some impressions:

Rudy Giuliani - Did nothing to hurt himself. Seems unafraid to take unpopular positions, but reeks of the City. Still standing after immigration grilling. Not great on today's Politico's Billing-the-city piece. Third place.

Mike Huckabee - Impressive, witty, and religious; appears in sharper command of issues than in previous weeks. Co-winner.

Rep. Duncan Hunter - Unremarkable

Sen. John McCain - Slow start, but took off after torture question and demonstrated the command and clarity that made McCain an early front-runner. Second place.

Rep. Ron Paul - Decisive, earnest, anti-war and pro-vet. This guy is popular with veterans and is raising one hell of a lot of money. And the Iraq War is not nearly as popular with GOP voters as many pretend. GOP better find a way to stop this guy. Co-winner.

Mitt Romney - Indecisive, insincere and slick; unsteady, especially on the gays-in-the-military and torture questions. Big loser.

Rep. Tom Tancredo - Unremarkable

Fred Thompson - Listless, uninspired, and fading fast. Big loser.

The first primary is weeks away. And debates, mini-scandals and talking heads now matter. Campaign operatives are losing hair, I assure you.

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