Religious Right to Kill 2008 Republican Nominee

Update II: Novak - McCain's Christian Problem

Update: Evangelicals deserting ahead of 2008 election

The Republicans Are Going to Lose.

[A recurring feature pointing to evidence and analyses of the Republicans’ coming defeat in 2008.]



Perhaps the key question about the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nominee is: How badly will the Republican nominee under-perform with the religious right in the general election?

Looking at the top four Republican contenders, the answer appears to be very badly; and though the religious right voters arguably comprise merely some 15-to-20 percent of the electorate in the general election, absent their enthusiastic support, the Republican nominee looks dead.

The religious right has found no acceptable candidates in the GOP's first-tier candidates, so Democrats can have some fun observing their nomination process.

Some quick notes on the four leading candidates:

Rudy Giuliani — James Dobson, the leading religious right leader of the Focus on the Family group that self-consciously rallies religious right voters has made clear that Rudy is political anathema; hence Rudy will perform badly with the religious right; and Rudy’s past positions on Affirmative Action, Abortion, civil right for gays and Immigration will kill his candidacy. [Rudy won’t play in the general election, and his cross-over appeal because of his strength has never been demonstrated and will be off-set by any agile Democratic campaign.]

John McCain — "Speaking as a private individual, I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," said James Dobson. Few religious right leaders have forgiven McCain for his wildly unpopular (in Republican circles) McCain/Feingold bill, and his April 9, 2000 speech trashing the religious right (that’s the Robertson/Falwell “agents of intolerance” speech). McCain would perform as badly as Rudy.

Mitt Romney — As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney was even more pro-choice and pro-civil rights for gays than Rudy. The massive effort underway to convert him into a rightwinger won’t fly (detailed in the current Harper’s (November) piece by Ken Silverstein). As quoted by Silverstein: “(Romney) says all the right things, his speeches run through the litmus test on conservative issues, but there’s no conviction behind it. …,” said Cyndi Mosteller, a social rightwinger and GOP politico in South Carolina. Add to that Christian religious bigotry against Mormons and you have a political Loser.

Fred Thompson — As a late September piece in The Politico notes: "Isn’t Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different definitions of marriage in the U.S., favors McCain-Feingold, won’t talk at all about what he believes, and can’t speak his way out of a paper bag on the campaign trail?" Dobson asked in the message, obtained by The Associated Press. "He has no passion, no zeal and no apparent ‘want to.’ And yet he is apparently the Great Hope that burns in the breasts of many conservative Christians? Well, not for me, my brothers. Not for me!"

Grandpa Fred is dead, and he comes across as tired and wooden: An older version of an unenergetic John Kerry.
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