McCain More Vulnerable than Rudy

Political prognostication is a sport destined to achieve a non-perfect record.

Ask Kevin Drum, and he's damn good.

Drum agreed with predictions made last November that after Pat Robertson's endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, other rightwingers would jump on board the Rudy train. Drum wrote, quoting Rich Lowry:

Just talked to a top social conservative. He says, hinting that more prominent social cons will end up going with Rudy, 'There's plenty more where this comes from.' On the impact of the Robertson endorsement on the race: "What it does for Rudy is it says, 'It's OK to vote for Rudy.' I think there will be more of that, pre-nomination and post-nomination." On conservative evangelical voters and Giuliani: "If Rudy is the nominee, they're going to vote for him — period."

"This strikes me as right. The real core issue of the Christian right has always been 'moral decay,'" wrote Drum.

Did not work out that way with Rudy. No mass of Christians leaped behind him because Pat Robertson said so. And let-them-eat-cake McCain presents even more problems than Rudy, never mind that the GOP establishment hates the guy.

Drum's contention that the religious right voters focus on their conception of moral decay is accurate to a point, but religious right voters are sufficiently independently thinking (I know) that they will not, in overwhelming numbers, automatically and on command fall in line for a GOP candidate who does not speak their language and who is insincere.

As much as I personally disagree with the religious right on just about every aspect of their descriptive views, these voters hold much more nuanced world and ethical views than Drum and Lowry would have you believe; and, more than some Republican operatives may realize: Genuine views.

George W. Bush connected with these voters, and as much as W. is a truly repulsive political and ethical leader, he is genuine in his religious convictions.

In enough churches of the religious right, it's not all authoritarianism and 'our leaders say we must vote for this man to save the world from Satan'.

The churches are a community: People coming together to help an elderly lady paint her house; people coming together and talking about a personal problem; sharing a success; comforting a church member in a crisis; and solving non-political issues about quality of living.

I spoke to several people in Wisconsin at the fundamentalist Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod (WELS) church in 1998, and wrote a piece scathing and somewhat mocking in tone for a Milwaukee LGBT civil rights periodical.

But as noted then, the church was very community-oriented and a lot of people did a lot of work to help one another out.

Sure, there will be some, possibly many (especially in the south), among the religious right voters who will pull a lever for the Republican nominee, when enough political propaganda and brand pressures are applied.

But there will also be many more, and more than enough to sway an election, who will dedicate their energies in places other than a polling place and political campaigns when they feel insulted and used by John McCain or Mitt Romney; and they may be found in the political offices where you might not expect them to be residing, like in the Democratic nominee's.

[This article appeated in a slightly different version entitled Rudy Can Fail on Nov. 9, 2007.]

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NBC: Clinton Wins ////Clinton's Slim Lead Getting Slimmer

NBC calls it for Clinton, minutes after MyDD.
UpdateIII: MyDD calls it for Clinton: Clinton wins New Hampshire
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:16:19 PM EST
That's good enough for me, I went through the numbers enough to call it for Clinton.

UpdateII: -62% in - Three percent Clinton lead.

Update: From Kos: Obama fans -- CNN says no college towns have reported yet.

A victory for Clinton 'cause the NH race is still not over. But the huge turn-out wards can be expected to report in late, with expected Obama victory margins.

-50% in- Three percent Clinton lead. (Liberal areas beginning to report in.)
-42% in- Two percent Clinton lead.

#
38% reporting

Clinton 37,037 39%
Obama 34,196 36%
Edwards 15,715 17%
Richardson 4,399 5%
Kucinich 1,379 2%
Biden 182 0%
Gravel 129 0%
Dodd 80 0%

Iowa Democratic Pres Race Prediction

Lots of polls and predictions for the Iowa caucuses out

The Iowa Independent predicts:

Barack Obama: The winner in a narrow victory, and Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in a second-place tie.

Not bad, but I would add that word around Wisconsin Democratic campfires is that Clinton has several first-rate field organizers from Wisconsin (and elsewhere), and Dennis Kucinich just might offer his support to someone in whom he believes, and a last-minute endorsement from Kucinich can make a difference in a close race like Iowa's.

The politically savvy Kucinich might make an early-next-week endorsement that would give his candidacy's concerns (crazy ideas like health care, education and peace) political capital; watch out for a surprise.

No one is outworking anyone else among the big three Dems, but I predict a Clinton win accompanied by a strong performance with Iowa Catholics, with Obama and Edwards close behind.

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Huckabee Blasts Romney for Negative Ads

Mitt Romney is getting desperate. If Romney gets a poor showing in Iowa, he will go into New Hampshire smelling like a loser, quite possibly dooming his campaign.

So Romney is going negative on Mike Huckabee entering the last weekend before Iowa's caucuses.

A big risk for a faltering Romney campaign with no real choice or promising direction.

Huckabee is using Romney's negative tactics to raise money; and the perceived personal qualities of Huckabee's that have catapulted him into a frontrunner are precisely those lacking in Romney: Positive, sincere, kind-hearted and principled.

From the Huckster's fundraising e-mail:

With only days to go though, we still have a lots of work to do to overcome Governor Romney's organization and his negative attacks. He has outspent us 20 to 1 and nearly everyone I meet has seen one of his negative and false attack ads about me or has received a desperate piece of direct mail from his campaign that makes me sound like I should be run out of Iowa all of the way back to Arkansas.

In political consultant lingo, Governor Romney's campaign is trying to "define me" for voters. The thinking goes, if you run enough negative attack ads, people will begin to believe what they hear and will decide to stay home on Caucus night. It is an old trick in politics and probably one of the worst. Wouldn't it be better if Governor Romney spent his energy and money trying to define himself?

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Rudy Says He Loves Corrupt, Liberty-destroying Judges Too

Update: Rudy Giuliani's messianic paranoia (Glnn Greenwald at Salon)

One of the things a man must do to secure today's Republican presidential nomination is nail down the support of right-wing attorneys for whom the Bill of Rights and the rule of law are simple obstacles to be overcome in their power grab.

Rudy Giuliani tried his hand in that enterprise yesterday, addressing the 2007 National Lawyers Convention of the Federalist Society, legal rightwingers working to bring about a revolution in American jurisprudence through the appointment of federal judges who would weaken the liberties in the Bill of Rights and serve the GOP and its interests.

Of course, the Federalist Society dresses up their judicial ideology as strict constructionalism, fidelity to the U.S. Constitution and the law.

Like what Rudy said: “We’re seeking to find judges who understand the very, very important concept that judges exist to interpret the law, not to invent the law.”

Reports indicate that at the event Rudy vowed to nominate justices like "Justice Scalia, Justice Thomas, Justice Alito and Chief Justice Roberts," the four most conservative (strict constructionalist-like) judges on the current Supreme Court. (Walter Shapiro in Salon)

In reality, Rudy is a (born-again) strict constructionist: Someone who wishes to make abortion illegal (now, through the appointment of judges who would do so), sees no great defined liberty rights in the Constitution, is a lousy scholar of Constitutional thought, and will overturn any judicial precedent if it fits with the right wing political network that puts him in power should he win a general election.

Strict constructionalism is to the judiciary what freedom and autonomy are to U.S.-occupied Iraq, an expensive lie that will do one hell of a lot of damage.

These strict constructionists would even halt an election and appoint a man like George W. Bush to the presidency if they ever had the chance.

Rudy's kind of people.

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John Edwards Hits a Homer for Vets with PTSD Plan

Update: "Stunning": CBS News Discovers "Hidden Epidemic" of Military Suicides

Good man, John. Let's shame every candidate into supporting his plan.

From Chaoslillith's diary at Kos:

(John Edwards') plan for helping troops with PTSD.

Senator John Edwards strongly believes we must restore the sacred contract we have with our veterans and their families, and that we must begin by reforming our system for treating PTSD. As president, Edwards will enact the following five-point plan for PTSD:

Give service members more time at home
The ideal "dwell-time" between deployments is twice as much time at home as on tour. Inadequate dwell time leads to higher levels of PTSD, as soldiers have too little time to recuperate, aggravating any mental stress from service in the field. The Bush Administration has extended tours to 15 months, with troops given too little time at home in between deployments. Troops have also been redeployed with PTSD—a problem even the Bush Administration has described as "daunting and growing." As president, Senator Edwards will avoid deployment patterns likely to lead to higher levels of PTSD.

He will also avoid reckless military decisions like a so-called "preventive war" with Iran that could hurt our troops and their families. [Veterans for America 2007; DOD Task Force on Mental Health, 2007].

Improve resources, training, and outreach

We must refocus our attention on PTSD and remove the stigma that too long has been associated with the disorder. A warrior should not be ashamed to get treatment for the personal consequences of the experience of war. Too often, however, veterans have a difficult time getting counseling because there are not enough trained counselors in the TRICARE and VA networks. Veterans also sometimes avoid getting care within the networks because of the stigma associated with PTSD. Edwards will act to remove the stigma from PTSD, increase counseling resources within the TRICARE and VA networks and will permit veterans to access counseling outside of the networks. Edwards will also improve training for health personnel to recognize and treat PTSD and establish uniform standards for mental health care. Finally, he will ensure outreach is extended to family
members, who can help recognize symptoms of PTSD and help their loved ones get the help they need.

Aggressively resolve the claim backlog

The VA currently has a backlog between 400,000 and 600,000 claims, and wait times for initial determinations of up to 6 months. This means that veterans with PTSD have to suffer longer. Edwards will adopt an aggressive, goal-oriented approach to processing the backlog. As president, he will process the entire backlog that exists when he takes office by Memorial Day 2009, and will cut the average processing time in half. [CNN 2007].
Provide a comprehensive medical examination

Too often, veterans receive their first medical examination months or even years after they leave the service, which makes it difficult to ascertain whether an injury is service-related, creating difficulties and inefficiencies later. As president, Edwards will create a new system providing each service member with a comprehensive, standardized medical examination immediately upon leaving the service, and will link that examination with the disability rating. Both will be included in a new "Homefront Redeployment Plan" every veteran will receive.

A national chain of care

Once our service members become veterans, we have to make sure the system doesn't fail them. As president, Edwards will create a new national chain of care to ensure that no veteran again falls through the cracks. Because many veterans receive treatment outside the VA system, this chain will coordinate treatment and benefits in outreach centers and clinics in every county where a veteran resides, both within and outside the VA network.

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Republicans: Get Away Bush, You Pest

Stay no longer and get away fast is the message from Republicans for the fading President George W. Bush. [Bush is pictured at right.] But God still loves him.

From Der Spiegel, Gabor Steingart reports:

It's twilight at the White House. First it was voters and now it's the president's friends who are abandoning him. Thank God, says conservative luminary Newt Gingrich. According to Gingrich, Republicans can only hope to hold onto power by breaking their ties with Bush. The end of an era has many faces. One is that of a narrow-lipped president appearing on primetime TV, asking Americans for money and their confidence. Another is that of Utah native Nathan Barnes, 23, who didn't survive his deployment to Iraq and whose photo appeared in the obituaries section of his local paper.

My personal message to the ass-in-chief is: Take a long walk on a Baghdad street.

This is pretty much the message delivered by the UN listening to Bush's speech today, though you won't read it in the American papers. See L.C. Johnson at Daily Kos.
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Young and Alert

Via ThinkProgress:

65 percent: Number of people under the age of 30 who are “paying at least some attention to the 2008 presidential campaign,” according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. That number is up considerably from July 2003, when just “36 percent of those under age 30 were paying attention to the election.”
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