Update: Novak - McCain's Christian Problem
Obama advocates concerned about the recent pro-McCain coverage on CNN and MSNBC as a precursor of biased media treatment to come in the general election can relax.
McCain is a fatally weak GOP candidate to face Obama, and it’s likely that many GOP movement wingers see him as a 2008 sacrificial sheep happily slaughtered to the 2012-2016 gods.
There's no open talk from GOP insiders of course, but there is a secret let-McCain-fall program: Call it McCainCon [a play on the secret EComCon conspiracy from the Seven Days in May movie based on the Fletcher Knebel- Charles W. Bailey II book].
I'm suggesting a plot by conservative movement officers to sabotage the GOP nominee for president of the United States.
And many conservatives need only participate with faint energy in the campaign to add their support to this McCainCon conspiracy, watching a man they dislike take the fall in a Goldwateresque election for the GOP.
Consider some structural election facts and Democratic capabilities.
GOP Coalition
McCain has always been one of the least likely candidates to assemble a winning GOP coalition for a presidential run.
Consider the religious right.
"Speaking as a private individual, I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," said James Dobson of Focus on the Family, who reiterated his determination to not work and vote for McCain a few weeks ago.
And religious right leaders have not forgiven McCain for his wildly unpopular McCain/Feingold bill, and his April 9, 2000 speech trashing the religious right (that’s the Robertson/Falwell “agents of intolerance” speech).
Looking forward to the Ohio/Texas races this Tuesday, its bears noting that in the last GOP primary in Wisconsin (Feb. 19), McCain barely exceeded the margin of victory over Mike Huckabee that Obama scored over Hillary, 18 percent, and 17 percent respectively.
With respect to the religious right, the question is not whether, but how badly McCain will underperform in the general election. In McCain the GOP has picked a candidate arguably as bad as Rudy or Romney.
And John McCain’s courting of and endorsement by John Hagee who awaits a coming world war that will usher in the second coming, calls the Catholic Church the "anti-Christ" and "great whore," and says Jews are responsible for their persecution, will not help McCain with either the religious right or the casually political independents and working class Catholics—all with whom McCain needs in order to excel in the general election.
Iraq
With overwhelming majorities (including active duty personnel and veterans) calling for a pull-out from Iraq, how do you think an anti-Iraq War, pro-veteran Obama will do against a man calling for troops in Iraq for as long as 100 years?
Bush
McCain has now tied himself so intimately with Bush with accompanying flipflops on torture and tax cuts for the super-wealthy, that no amount of September/October spinning can extricate McCain from the political sinkhole that is George W. Bush.
No Election for Old Ways
On both style and substance, Obama offers a change away from the last eight years of government under Bush/Rove/Cheney. Does anyone believe that McCain in both style and substance offers something different than the Bush regime?
Conclusion
There are other weaknesses—the economy, unemployment, education, health care, as well as desired changes of political tone, attitudes toward government being the peoples’ instrument, and pro-Democratic disparity in party enthusiasm—in which McCain offers no match for Obama.
Honest GOP players know this, though saying it out loud would be silly; and the fact of the matter is that many GOP movement warriors simply do not like McCain for a variety of personal and political reasons and are happy to watch him take the fall in a silent and deadly political plot of inaction.
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