Showing posts with label Nate Silver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nate Silver. Show all posts

Nov 5, 2012

Nate Silver, Larry Sabato: Obama Will Win; Baldwin Will Win

GOP Obstruction in Florida. Long Lines
stretch into the dark because of GOP-shortened
voting periods. The GOP has obstructed voters
nationally as the more Americans voting, the less
likely Republicans can win.
As Republican efforts from Wisconsin to Ohio to Florida to obstruct voters continue, two leading electoral analysts say Obama will win despite GOP voter suppression efforts.

Nate Silver predicts an Obama victory (86 percent probability), also giving the critical state of Ohio an 87 percent probability of voting for Obama.

Obama's winning Ohio means Romney will have to win Wisconsin to have any chance of prevailing, a prospect for Romney that is blocked in Wisconsin since much of the GOP's voter obstruction program was struck down in court as unconstitutional.

Silver rates Obama winning Wisconsin as a 94 percent probability. Silver also says Virginia is a likely Obama state, giving president Obama a total 307 electoral votes (270 to win).

Larry J. Sabato (with Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley) also predicts an Obama victory. Writes Sabato:

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.
Sabato predicts a Romney victory in Virginia, differing from Silver on this swing state.

In Wisconsin, Silver and Sabato predict a Tammy Baldwin win over hedge fund consultant, Tommy Thompson, with Silver giving Baldwin a 77 percent probability of winning.

By the way climate change denier, George Will, predicts a Romney landslide.

Nov 2, 2012

Obama Victory Approaches October High; Wisconsin 94%, Ohio 82% Likely Obama Win

The face of the Republican Party's national RICO program.
Rockingham County Sheriff’s Office - Colin Small,
a former employee of Strategic Allied Consulting, a contractor
for the Republican Party of Virginia, had been scheduled
to appear last Tuesday before a grand jury
after he was charged with tossing
completed registration forms into a recycling bin.
Read Nate Silver's latest for electoral updates. Check out the Brad Blog for the national criminal Republican scandal.

It is becoming obvious now (finally) to casual voters that "Romney is one of the most dishonest, duplicitous candidates to ever seek the presidency," as Charles M. Blow writes.

The moderate Republicans continue their give-into-the-Tea Party-terrorists argument or else they'll wreck this country, as Paul Krugman writes:

But are we ready to become a country in which 'Nice country you got here. Shame if something were to happen to it' becomes a winning political argument? I hope not. By all means, vote for Mr. Romney if you think he offers the better policies. But arguing for Mr. Romney on the grounds that he could get things done veers dangerously close to accepting protection-racket politics, which have no place in American life.
Even the Washington Post has grown disgusted with Romney.

THROUGH ALL THE flip-flops, there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate.
As for the GOP criminality, through all the dirty, illegal programs that are integral to GOP politics these days, the leading media appears finally up to doing its job to a point.

I doubt Brad Friedman will get the credit he deserves for his routine, breaking, exclusive reports at the Brad Blog, but at least he is pushing the Post into becoming a newspaper vis a vis a Party sheet.

The White Party (GOP) is rivaling Nixon in its fetid politics and the John Birch Society in its policies. And the game is just about up.

Check out this piece from Carol D. Leonnig and Tom Hamburger:

American Crossroads, the political organization that Republican operative Karl Rove helped found, paid (Nathan) Sproul’s firms $1.5 million in the week before the 2010 midterm elections for get-out-the-vote efforts and voter phone calls, according to a review of election records. In total, companies led by Sproul have received $21 million from Republican campaign committees for voter outreach work since 2004. Much of the 2012 payments came from the national party to pay for voter registration in the key states of Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

Nov 1, 2012

Nate Silver Forecast: Obama Will Win

Satellite loop from the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
showing Hurricane Sandy as it made landfall in New Jersey.
Nate Silver has become a phenomenon (and sometimes a tranquilizer of sorts) for Americans anxious over the prospect the White, Christian, authoritarian, Republican Party could be unleashed onto what remains a largely depoliticized America.

And for good reason, Silver is predicting Obama's re-election.

With few notable exceptions, moderate, intelligent Republicans—for reasons surpassing understanding—refuse to publicly criticize the Tea Party's direction led by underground, corporatist movements such as the Koch brothers and other rightwing billionaires who would literally alter the composition of the Earth's climate, because they perceive this to be convenient in the short term.

Global warming and extreme weather events, like Hurricane Sandy, who cares? We all should.

Other horrors await.

Women's choice—we have to get rid of that.

Voting Rights Act—that's why we have a corrupt U.S. Supreme Court to strike it down.

Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—Ayn Rand (were this loony alive) and the Koch brothers do not approve. Plenty of Scott Walkers and Paul Ryans to take their money and implement their plans of destruction.

In Wisconsin, the Walker regime takes aim at the Coalition of Wisconsin Aging Groups (see excellent article by Mike Ivey) and other institutions of increasing importance for seniors. [more on that in the coming weeks]

One can go on.

President Obama represents a bulwark against this neo-fascist movement, hence my mentioning Nate Silver's prognosis of an Obama victory. Silver is rigorous and fact-based.  His track record on forecasting national political wins is bolstered by his prediction of the GOP take-over of the House in 2010.

But one wonders what exactly the Tea Party-GOP would have to do before moderate, intelligent Republicans would voice objection.

History long presents a horror show of bystanders with results that ought to strike the conscience of widespread passive compliance (another powerful underground movement) today.

Vote for Obama, but do not for the sake of your children and your grandchildren, make that the end of your political activity.