Nov 5, 2012

Nate Silver, Larry Sabato: Obama Will Win; Baldwin Will Win

GOP Obstruction in Florida. Long Lines
stretch into the dark because of GOP-shortened
voting periods. The GOP has obstructed voters
nationally as the more Americans voting, the less
likely Republicans can win.
As Republican efforts from Wisconsin to Ohio to Florida to obstruct voters continue, two leading electoral analysts say Obama will win despite GOP voter suppression efforts.

Nate Silver predicts an Obama victory (86 percent probability), also giving the critical state of Ohio an 87 percent probability of voting for Obama.

Obama's winning Ohio means Romney will have to win Wisconsin to have any chance of prevailing, a prospect for Romney that is blocked in Wisconsin since much of the GOP's voter obstruction program was struck down in court as unconstitutional.

Silver rates Obama winning Wisconsin as a 94 percent probability. Silver also says Virginia is a likely Obama state, giving president Obama a total 307 electoral votes (270 to win).

Larry J. Sabato (with Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley) also predicts an Obama victory. Writes Sabato:

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.
Sabato predicts a Romney victory in Virginia, differing from Silver on this swing state.

In Wisconsin, Silver and Sabato predict a Tammy Baldwin win over hedge fund consultant, Tommy Thompson, with Silver giving Baldwin a 77 percent probability of winning.

By the way climate change denier, George Will, predicts a Romney landslide.

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