Showing posts with label Larry J. Sabato. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Larry J. Sabato. Show all posts

Nov 5, 2012

Nate Silver, Larry Sabato: Obama Will Win; Baldwin Will Win

GOP Obstruction in Florida. Long Lines
stretch into the dark because of GOP-shortened
voting periods. The GOP has obstructed voters
nationally as the more Americans voting, the less
likely Republicans can win.
As Republican efforts from Wisconsin to Ohio to Florida to obstruct voters continue, two leading electoral analysts say Obama will win despite GOP voter suppression efforts.

Nate Silver predicts an Obama victory (86 percent probability), also giving the critical state of Ohio an 87 percent probability of voting for Obama.

Obama's winning Ohio means Romney will have to win Wisconsin to have any chance of prevailing, a prospect for Romney that is blocked in Wisconsin since much of the GOP's voter obstruction program was struck down in court as unconstitutional.

Silver rates Obama winning Wisconsin as a 94 percent probability. Silver also says Virginia is a likely Obama state, giving president Obama a total 307 electoral votes (270 to win).

Larry J. Sabato (with Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley) also predicts an Obama victory. Writes Sabato:

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.
Sabato predicts a Romney victory in Virginia, differing from Silver on this swing state.

In Wisconsin, Silver and Sabato predict a Tammy Baldwin win over hedge fund consultant, Tommy Thompson, with Silver giving Baldwin a 77 percent probability of winning.

By the way climate change denier, George Will, predicts a Romney landslide.

Jul 30, 2008

Novak Wrong in Calling Steady Five-Point Obama Lead a 'Bad Sign'

via mal contends - Robert Novak opines that "Republican losses in Congress will range from bad to catastrophic ... ," and yet Novak still contends that McCain has an even 50 shot at winning the election because of the static some-five-point-lead Obama has enjoyed at the polls for weeks.

"The complete lack of movement in the national polls is good news for Sen. John McCain and bad news for Sen. Barack Obama, even as the Democrat continues to hold a modest lead," writes Novak, whom we hope stays with us for decades to come.

But since when does a newcomer, non-incumbent presidential nominee blow away his challenger in the polls before the conventions and Labor Day—the first Monday in September. Can anyone name one example?

As Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato write:
... virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.

Jul 26, 2008

The Toss-up Lie

Great piece in the CrystalBall exposing the lie that the American public remains virtually tied in their preferences in the 2008 presidential horse race.

Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato write:
While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November.
Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.
But these facts and data tell a story that on broadcast TV just cannot be widely told. It just would not be fair to John McCain.

That this results in presenting a fiction, a lie beneficial to the Republican Party, well, that's what we expect from corporate media.