Pew Center Data Is Trouble for GOP

If you want to know why RNC Chair Michael Steele and his allies have become so shrill, it's not only because these guys are unhinged.

They have access to electoral data and a changing America spells trouble for a major political party that is overwhelmingly white, xenophobic, hateful and ignorant. These guys are desperate and Rush and the crew are increasingly impotent.

Consider the just-released Pew Research Center data in the Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History report.

Black, Hispanic and Asian participation is up, and white voting is down. As a percentage of the population, whites' share of the voting electorate has decreased from 84 percent (1988) to 76 percent (2008). That's because the composition of eligible voters has changed in roughly the same proportion.

White voters did support John McCain (55%) over Barack Obama (43%) nationwide.

But white voters alone do not decide who is president, no matter the voter suppression efforts of John McCain and the GOP.

And the sub-headline at Pew: "Black women had the highest voter turnout rate in November's election -- a first". There goes the neighborhood.

Bruce and Obama

The Boss and Obama.

Someone to go to the well with

President Lyndon Baines Johnson nationalized the old Texas sentiment of confidence and respect: "He’s someone to go to the well with."

As we approach the end of the Bush-Cheney administration and the promise of President-elect Obama, we are presented with the consequences of eight years of nihilistic politics, greed-and-crony finance, and feeding of hatreds and division among our brothers and sisters.

That catastrophic bequest is the lack of confidence and uncertain liquidity in our financial system that threatens to squander our life savings, and kill innovation and the common effort.

Hard work and innovation with a common effort deserve the kind of respect that led LBJ to recognize that the civil rights movement in more ways than one restored the promise of America for all Americans.

The legacy of Bush-Cheney is the loss of that confidence and respect, the belief that we’re all in this together with men and women who are people we would go the well with.

That's what electing Obama means for us. The guy actually believes that our government should serve us; that the loss of much of our life savings can be recouped, that education is not for the few.

So as the GOP smirks at voting rights today, as the GOP warns Obama to go slow, let's look to the bleak near future of the economy with the same commitment and guidance that the civil rights movement offered all of us: We're in this together and we respect and value our fellow citizens.

And with a common effort, nothing can stop us as we go to the well together.

Wisconsin Leads Way for Obama

Since the Feb. 17 primary that catapulted Obama as the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary with solid appeal to the white working class, Wisconsin has reclaimed its maverick status demonstrating a propensity to support political progressives.

As Paul Maslin writes in Salon today, "In my home state of Wisconsin, Obama's margin mushroomed to an extraordinary 13 points. Just look at any of the electoral maps of the Badger State and realize that all that blue was produced by nearly all-white rural counties and small towns that many thought would never support an African-American candidate."

Obama, A Dream Realized

Even as the Republican Party waged its voter suppression battles until the very last minute, nothing could stop the voice of the people.

Election Day: November 4

First states to look for, election scoreboard, and leaked exit polling

- Two key early states to look for:
Indiana, after 5:00 PM (central): (except for Democratic-leaning Gary that closes at 6:00 PM).
Virginia closes at 6:00 PM (central).

If they both go Obama, Obama wins. In one state goes Obama, Obama is 99.999% certain to win. If neither does, no worries, McCain needs them, not us.

Useful links:

Election Scoreboard
Election Day ScoreBoard (Daily Kos) - great stuff

Leaked Exit Polling
Check back at the following sites around Noon Central time:

- MyDD
- Daily Kos
- BuzzFlash
- Huffington Post
- Drudge Report (I Know)

Wisc AG Van Hollen hosts McCain 'victory' party

From the Capital Times (Madison, Wis), John Nichols reports:

VAN HOLLEN TO HOST McCAIN "VICTORY" PARTY
After claiming for weeks that there was nothing partisan about his ambitious election season regimen of suing the Government Accountability Board and dispatching attorneys and special agents to polling places where high Democratic turnouts might reasonably be expected, Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen comes out of the closet Tuesday night.
He's co-hosting the 'Wisconsin GOP Election Night Party' -- where supporters of John McCain and Sarah Palin will toast their successes or drown their sorrows -- at a Waukesha hotel.
Van Hollen, a McCain campaign co-chair, will be joined by other non-partisan good government activists like Republican congressmen Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner.

Wisconsin is in the bag folks, no one is complacent here. We'll handle Van Hollen and the pricks here.

But Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and even Pennsylvania, any obstruction problems voting there, go the polls prepared:

- 1-866-OUR-VOTE Hotline (1-866-687-8683)
- Find your local Obama office and vote prepared to call them, http://www.barackobama.com/index.php
- Find your local paper's office and prepare to call them

Obama's Got This

See Don't Panic--Reassurances From a Poll Neurotic.

Build Baby, Build

Update: THE OPPORTUNITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE

Build big stuff out of little stuff.

Not as catchy (or as fun for Republicans) as "drill, baby drill" or 'let's buy and sell financial derivatives ,' but look for the national conversation to depart from the PR bromides that the mass media demands of presidential campaigns into the reality-based world of substance.

Wisconsin's Center on Wisconsin Strategy (COWS) had been laying the intellectual groundwork for years for labor-intensive, publicly financed capital projects, and the recognition and proliferation of patriotic manufacturers—"'original equipment manufacturers'" (OEMs) – that produce and sell automobiles, electrical appliances, and mining, transportation, and farm equipment."

COWS is a 501(c)(3) based at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, famous for the “Wisconsin Idea,” working for "competitive market economy of shared prosperity, environmental sustainability, and capable democratic government."

And it has been a voice in the wilderness during the Bush years no matter how many MacArthur Foundation geniuses write at the place.

On the eve of Obama's victory, word of Obama's Thoughtful Stand on Infrastructure Investment is leaking out and COWS is likely to become a player because of its shared philosophy now getting a hearing.

The New America Foundation's Sherle Schwenninger and industrialist and philanthropist Bernard Schwartz were out way ahead of the pack in calling for massive government commitment to infrastructure investment, writes Steve Clemons.

The fact is we can build our way of this mess to the benefit of the American people, our infrastructure, the environment, the world's financial system, and the radical transformation of our energy system.

This would be done though implementing policies that are politically popular, hence the Republicans' desperate, too-little-too-late and too-incoherent campaign yelling communist, socialist and other such nonsense.

As for COWs and like-minded prescriptions: Jobs, living wages, health insurance, maybe these guys are aliens like the GOP wants us to believe.
- via mal contends

Loser, Loser, Loser

Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, reports that there's a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday.
- Political Wire

See also:
- Intrade Prediction Market Electoral Map

- 538.com

- Real Clear Politics

A corrupt hack like J.B. Van Hollen cannot change anything, though he tried his worst.

As Josh Orton writes on Van Hollen and his judicial follies: "Really the best of both worlds: Barack Obama would win Wisconsin even if the suit failed - but now another careerist Republican looks foolish having failed to politicize the voting process."

Watch Virginia and North Carolina

Watch Virginia and North Carolina go Obama and we win.

McCain could win, improbably, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada, and we would still win.

Chuck Todd's analysis of the two states:

Virginia: This state and the Republican Party are just not in sync. I'm convinced if the state GOP were in better shape, McCain would be in better shape. But because the state party is such a mess, McCain's in trouble. Mark Warner is coasting to an easy senate victory and the GOP could lose one to three House seats. Just a devastating time to be a Republican in Virginia.

North Carolina: Is there a more relevant battleground state than the Tarheel state? Not only is the presidential close, but the senate and governor's races are also nailbiters. The Dem ballot is really fascinating as none of the top three slots are being filled by white males. And, believe it or not, the Republicans feel best about their chances in the governor's race (a campaign they usually lose) than the senate or presidential. A Democratic victory in the senate race would really be historic as it would be the first time since the days of Sam Ervin that the party will have won a senate seat in a presidential year. Democrats also have a shot at a House pickup in the 8th District. But keep an eye on Republican Pat McCrory. If the Charlotte mayor wins in this environment, he'll instantly become a player in national Republican politics.

NJ Insiders Poll: Obama and Obama

National Journal Washington Insiders Poll

Republicans (71 votes)
Q. Who will win the presidential election?
John McCain 18%
Barack Obama 82%

Democrats (74 votes)
Q. Who will win the presidential election?
John McCain 0%
Barack Obama 100%

Challenge Van Hollen's Staff

Update: Gov Doyle, Sheboygan DA criticize Van Hollen plan for agents at polling places

The Sheboygan County district attorney joined Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle today in denouncing plans by Republican Attorney General J.B.Van Hollen to assign about 50 criminal agents and state lawyers to monitor polls in 12 areas on Nov. 4.
Sheboygan County District Attorney Joe DeCocco, a Democrat, called Van Hollen's plan to use state agents and lawyers to monitor polls Tuesday a 'dog and pony' show. DeCocco said his search of state law 'did not locate any mandates of providing prosecutor coverage at polling sites, or any authority to do so.'
'The attorney general has no authority in this state to supervise elections,' Doyle told reporters. He again said the move by Van Hollen is part of a national effort by Republican Party leaders to 'try and raise questions' about the voting process - questions that they hope keep some voters from casting ballots.

---
After voting, voters should find out who Van Hollen's attorneys general and special agents deployed to "ensure compliance with state laws governing elections," get their names, and ask them to explain their role and what actions they have taken that day.

Statement by Democratic Party of Wisconsin chair Joe Wineke:

After losing his hyper-partisan lawsuit against the Government Accountability Board, Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen is now so desperate to influence the election that he has resorted to sending state prosecutors to intimidate voters at the polls at the expense of Wisconsin taxpayers.

The U.S. Department of Justice has already decided that criminal prosecutors will not be used as election monitors this year, and it is irresponsible of Van Hollen to use state prosecutors in this way. This is nothing more than a shameless political stunt designed to appease Van Hollen's Republican Party bosses and manipulate the election in their favor by disenfranchising voters.

Van Hollen is using taxpayer resources to pull these agents away from their real jobs to investigate fabricated stories about widespread voter fraud. There is no widespread voter fraud in Wisconsin, as Republican U.S. Attorney Steve Biskupic has already confirmed following a thorough investigation.

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin will be working hard this Election Day to ensure that voters are able to cast their ballots in an environment free of discrimination, suppression or intimidation. On November 4, every qualified voter must be able to go to the polls and exercise their most basic American right.

Bring Cell Phones to Fight DOJ Asst AGs and Special Agents

- Special Note: See http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/wioffices for a list of Obama offices. - Fight back on Election Day against Van Hollen's "election integrity efforts."

If you witness any obstruction or intimidation on Election Day by any of Van Hollen's people, call: 1 866 OUR VOTE and report it, and call Obama's people.

Don't back down and don't take NO for an answer for your right to vote. Fight!

If you have a cell phone and see Van Hollen's hacks harassing or intimidating a voter, document it discreetly on your cell phone camera, and call 1 866 OUR VOTE right away to get the incident aired and rectified. Or simply take notes, gather facts and report them, get the ward number and time of day.

Obama's people have 1,000s of lawyers prepared for Van Hollen's last-minute dirty tricks. And polling places throughout the state are filled with numerous Obama supporters dedicated to the rule of law and the right to vote.

Find your local Obama headquarters and them know what is happening, especially in Milwaukee where those uppity blacks insist on voting. See http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/wioffices for a list of Obama offices.

McCain's only shot at winning Wisconsin is to suppress Milwaukee blacks, and they know this fact well.

Evans-Novak: Obama Narrow Win, Dems Big Senate, House Win

"Sen. Barack Obama is poised to be the nation’s first black president, winning by a narrow margin, and enjoying very large Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress ... ," reads the Evans-Novak Political Report.

Good news, my friends, from a veteran rightwing newsletter.

Obama's 30-Minute Spot Enrages Republicans

Let them whine.

From the Washington Monthly:

On MSNBC yesterday, far-right pundit Willie Geist said Obama's ad reminded him of 'the Soviet invasion,' because it 'take[s] over the airwaves.' Yesterday afternoon, Elisabeth Hasselbeck called the Obama ad 'repulsive.'

Ken Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project, said, 'John McCain's only chance is to disqualify Barack Obama. He has seven days. Every day that people are talking about Barack Obama's infomercial is a day that John McCain isn't getting his message out.'

GOP Attacks Can Be Laughed off Now

The Wisconsin GOP is a lot like the national GOP except it is dumber and more disingenuous.

Even now, the Wisconsin Republicans think the path to a McCain victory is to rebrand Obama this late in the game with the tired "Who is Barack Obama?" attack.

Pathetic, but come election night after work: Fun times. Check out the new GOP mailing above.

McCain: Bad Liar and Loser

Update: Politics of bigotry may finally be over
Amid the voter suppression, the GOP corruption (for example Wisconsin Atty Gen. J.B. Van Hollen, US Atty Gen. Michael Mukasey), the appeals to fear and xenophobia (one can go on), an observer can plainly see why John McCain is going to lose.

Sure, the structure of the campaign in light of the economy and a divided GOP are instructive.

But one other aspect of the McCain campaign is clear: He's a horrible liar, hence an unsuccessful GOP presidential nominee for which lying is a necessity to winning a presidential general election. [The same imperative does not apply to the Democratic nominee but that's for a different column.]

"Detractory or defamatory lies should not be quite opposite to the qualities the person is supposed to have, " writes Dr. John Arbuthnot in Treatise on the Art of Political Lying (1714), (cited by Hitchens, Grand Street, Autumn, 1985).

In other words, the political lie has to be plausible. It must fit onto the existing image if it is to be believed, and the target audience of the lie has to be susceptible.

As Wall Street veers wildly and Americans fear for their families' futures, McCain and Palin are repeatedly and desperately hitting Obama for being a "redistributor," a President Robinhood who wants to take your money for which you work and then give the money away to others.

Give away to whom? It is darkly suggested in the paranoid, fearful minds of the Republican base though not explicitly stated, that blacks and Mexicans are the amorphous 'others' whom we must fear, along with their bag man Obama.

McCain and Palin have two problems with their political lies.

Never mind the incoherence with which Palin and McCain deliver the message, the existing psychological matrix of the electorate is inadequate for McCain's purposes; the public sees minorities absent the hostility of 30 years ago.

That's why few "independents" and "moderates" are buying McCain's snake oil.

Considering Obama's obvious qualities, the lie of his taking away our money and giving it away just does not ring true.

Not in Obama's biography that is well known now, not in Obama's steady debate performances, not in Obama's reasonable-sounding economic and tax proposals, not in his clear empathy for working families, and certainly not in the money being taken away right now from our retirement accounts by the cold free markets and years of Republican rule that Obama is in no way a part of, but with whom McCain is intimately and indisputably tied.

And as millions of Americans see $10,000s of their savings go down the drain, the "redistributor" brand just does not seem all that threatening anyway; it even has a certain appeal.

The lie is implausible and the audience is no longer there to believe it.

That's what makes McCain an ineffective liar and a political loser.

- via mal contends

McCainCon Conducting System Testing

Team members of McCainCon are conducting last-minute system testing though the objectives have already been met: John McCain's campaign is dead.

The plot to sabotage the GOP nominee for president of the United States by conservative movement officers, rightwingers and anti-McCain allies is brilliant. The members participated with faint energy in the McCain campaign, holding back, watching a man they dislike take the fall in a Goldwateresque election for the GOP.

After the election, McCainCon begins the acceptance phase that results in finding the man who they want as the next president in 2012: Sarah Palin.

Watch out for subplots and counter-espionage, and for Kirk Douglas to emerge out of the wreckage of the McCain campaign and blow the whistle.

Happy Monday

- Poll: Obama Widens Lead in Va. (Post) - We win Virginia, we win.

- End of Battle Centers on Turf Bush Carried (NYT) - Enough said.