Showing posts with label Ruy Teixeira. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ruy Teixeira. Show all posts

Jul 15, 2013

Abramowitz, Teixeira Say GOP's 'Whites Only' Strategy Will Fail

Tea Bagger rally in Madison, Wisconsin
Photo by Jesse Russell
A Republican strategist said last August that the Republican Party's 2012 naked appeals to racism "is the last time anyone will try to do this."

It's Summer 2013 and the GOP is singing a different tune now, exemplified by Sean Trende's minorities-don't-matter analyses.

Alleged GOP efforts to reach out to Latinos and African-Americans have given way to renewed conventional wisdom the Party can win elections by increasing white turnout and doubling down on racist appeals.

Read The Democratic Strategist (TDS) Memo by Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz: Why The 'GOP Can Win With White Votes Alone' Strategy is Doomed to Failure."

Reading Teixeira and Abramowitz is like reading Nate Silver in October 2012.

Share it with friends.

Jun 8, 2011

GOP CouponCare Tanking; Ryan and GOP Delusional

"Amazingly, despite the strongly negative reaction so far to the Ryan budget's plan to end Medicare as we know it, conservatives are continuing to back it, arguing that all they need is better messaging about the plan. This is clearly delusional. No message is going to change the simple fact that the public doesn't like the plan and wishes it would go away ... ."
- Ruy Teixeira, quoted in The Democratic Strategist

Nov 6, 2010

Mandate, Slandate

- Money Talks, Ideology Walks -

The Democratic Strategist has a piece summarizing William Galston and Ruy Teixeira's recent post-election analyses.

Worth a read.

But the take-away: Election results came from "... the poor state of the economy [and] the abnormally conservative composition of the midterm electorate" seems obvious.

What can be inferred from the pieces is the fact that the voting electorate in 2012 will differ in composition from 2010.

And that from a political perspective the administration needs to change NOW its message on dealing with unemployment.

Voters don't want to hear about the determination of politicians to play nice. They want jobs, and all the advantages that come with near-full employment; and they really don't give a gosh darn if pay-checks and investment come as a result of government spending or the private sector.

Ask the employees the Oshkosh Corporation how bothered they are that tax-payers (and their children and grandchildren) are/will be paying $billions for the production of Medium Tactical Vehicle Replacements (MTVR) in a stupid conflict in Afghanistan.

Jun 13, 2009

Dan Balz: National GOP Rancid - Echoed in Wisconsin

On graphic display in the Wisconsin Assembly budget debate last week is the Republican demographic demise. GOP failings in Wisconsin echo those nationally.

Says Dan Balz today in his For Republicans, the Forces Aren't With Them in the Washington Post.

The American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution convened a stellar cast on Friday to review what has been learned since November. The panel included Robert Lang of Virginia Tech; Ruy Teixeira of the Center for American Progress; William Frey of the Brookings Institution; Bill Bishop, a Texas writer and author of ‘The Big Sort’; Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center; and Ronald Brownstein of Atlantic Media. They presented a wealth of data about what happened in 2008 and offered conclusions that would alarm any Republican hopeful of a quick turnaround in the party's fortunes.

Wisconsin mirrors the nation in setting off Republican political alarms.

Wisconsin is a political anthology of the demographic trend Balz discusses as the GOP problem with blacks and Latinos persists with the GOP still behaving in an overtly hostile manner towards these communities that comprise fast-growing segments of the electorate, with “black women [having] the highest voter turnout rate in November's election -- a first". [See Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History.]

Says Balz:
In the last election, there were more than 2 million additional African American voters, about 2 million more Hispanic voters and about a million more Asian American voters. All are groups in which Obama increased the Democratic share of the vote over 2004. Frey estimated that minority voters in nine states made the difference in Obama's victory margin.

Republicans can't reverse the demographic trends; their only solution is to increase their share of the minority vote. Opposing Judge Sonia Sotomayor, Obama's Supreme Court nominee, because of her pride in being a Latina won't help solve that problem.

So what is the response of Wisconsin Republicans like Mike Nichols, Patrick McIlheran and other GOP talking heads?

Mocking and scapegoating, for example, obnoxious and unanimous Wisconsin GOP opposition to Democratic initiatives on immigrant driver licenses and collecting racial profiling data.

The GOP message to African American and Hispanic voters veers from we don’t like you to you don’t belong here to you’re on your own.

As Balz implies, this isn’t a winning political strategy anymore, never mind its fetid taste.

During the budget debate, Jim Doyle, Tamara Grigsby and Pedro Colón have been the collective punching bag of the GOP looking to stir up white resentment on the economy and to place the blame for the last eight years of national economic catastrophe on one Wisconsin governor and minority constituencies—this has been the GOP playbook since the Southern Strategy.

But Doyle, Grigsby and Colón appear quietly confident that this old divisive tactic is not working.

The future looks bright for a political message based on unity, civil rights and inclusion, geared especially to younger voters who are diverse demographically, less religious, culturally liberal, and less susceptible to GOP racist appeals.

Nov 15, 2008

Wisconsin '08 Election Notes

Political writers who in February ridiculed the notion that Obama, flush with a 17-point primary victory here, could in November win substantial blocks of voters among the 'white working class' (WWC), appeal to white voters in Republican strongholds such as Waukesha County, and who crowed that their reading of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) federal election law was spot-on correct, are in a word: Wrong.

Typical among today's brand of Republican commentators, such admissions have not been forthcoming.

White Working Class

As Ruy Teixeira writes: While losing the "white working class" (WWC) vote nationally by 18 points, "(o)n the state level, Obama did stunningly well among WWC voters in four of the five highly competitive states they won in 2000 and 2004 (MI, MN, OR and (Wisconsin)). The average WWC deficit for Kerry in these states in 2004 was 8 points. In 2008, Obama had an average advantage in these states of 6 points, a pro-Democratic swing of 14 points."

Waukesha County

Looking at Waukesha County, Kerry lost by 81,000 votes; Obama lost by some 60,000 votes. That's an improvement in one county of about twice the Democratic nominees' statewide combined winning margins in 2000 and 2004.

Informed (let's be honest non-Republican) observers saw McCain as a long shot here, with prospects dimming with each passing negative ad run.

But the Republican political campaign itself never gave up though its top strategists recalled later that they could read the writing on the wall.

McCain-Palin co-chair Van Hollen, Amen-Corner Know-Nothings

But the campaign soldiered on, including the contemptible attempt by McCain-Palin co-chair and AG J.B. Van Hollen to use the federal Help America Vote Act (HAVA) to force widespread provisional ballot voting, disqualify eligible voters, suppress the black turnout in Milwaukee [where the blacks were getting uppity], and basically sow confusion into the voting process.

They lost that battle too.

And now Republican commentators, facts aside, claim victory: Victory in their arguments—citing the Government Accountability Board's (GAB) recent decision to maintain the Statewide Voter Registration System (SVRS), a voters list, by comparing it with State Department of Transportation data, per HAVA.

Some facts that continue to elude such writers as Waukesha's James Wigderson:

- The text in HAVA mandates that Wisconsin takes due care to see that eligible voters are not thrown off the voter rolls. The GAB has been and is exercising that care. Thus, as the GAB press release reads: "The six-member Board of former judges ruled that a mismatch of voter information contained in the Statewide Voter Registration System (SVRS) with Wisconsin Department of Transportation (DOT) data, in and of itself, shall not result in disqualification of a voter."

- The GAB has said repeatedly that it will implement the cross-checking as Van Hollen, the GOP, and know-nothings like Wigderson screamed was demanded by the "law." But the disagreement was over the timetable, the GAB's versus the GOP's.

As the GAB press release reads: "The Board’s decision prevented potentially thousands of Wisconsin voters from being disenfranchised ... on November 4, solely because the spelling of the voter’s name was not exactly the same in the DOT database and the SVRS database. In its August 27 decision, the Board said that it would revisit its action after the fall election. ... 'Since being directed by the Board at its August 27 meeting, it has been our intention to work with our local election partners after the General Election to identify a protocol that ensures consistency and standards for cross-checking all voters in SVRS with DOT records,' (said) Kevin Kennedy, GAB’s Director and General Counsel, and Wisconsin’s Chief Election Officer. '"

The GAB is revisiting its action now, like it said it would.

So Wigderson says he was right all along, citing the decision of the GAB to do what it said it was going to do, and refusing to disenfranchise voters because bureaucrats' databases do not match.

Republican commentators like Wigderson live in a world undisturbed by facts, replete with an utter inability to comprehend this issue. And they are treated seriously by some--especially in journals that should know better.

Thankfully, the reality-based community will take over both the legislative and executive in America and Wisconsin in 2009 having swept away reality-challenged minds.

Oct 26, 2008

Judis and Teixeira Look Prescient

[Writer’s Preface: We’re going to win and we assume nothing beyond the rapacious, dishonest and corrupt nature of GOP political operatives exemplified by Wisconsin Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen determined to thwart the will of the American people. Van Hollen lost, by the way.]

John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira's The Emerging Democratic Majority (Lisa Drew Books/Scribner, 2002) predicting the "end of Republican hegemony" looks politically prophetic a week out from Election Day.

The book garnered intense interest when it came out in 2002 as a reassuring analysis that monolithic Republican rule was not a logical necessity mandated by a majority of Americans desperately seeking a return to the pre-Enlightenment era.

On the contrary, reason and anti-feudalistic messages are political winners, it suggested.

The Emerging Democratic Majority's thesis is that America is entering an electoral center-left phase (contra 1969) and that the political environment will support a progressive president and Congress committed to public education, a strong social safety net, health insurance as a right, and programs promoting sustainable, environmentally friendly, alternative-energy innovations.

The evidence and analysis are a gratifying read as we watch the know-nothings and corrupt, self-made minions like J.B. Van Hollen (a perfect example of what the GOP has become) and the Bush crowd assault our Democracy and sacrifice our futures.

To read up-to-date analyses in the same vein as The Emerging Democratic Majority, read the Democratic Strategist on the net.

And take an hour and a half and read this book, it will make you feel good.
- via mal contends