Dane County Exec Prediction: Joe Parisi and Another Guy

Here's an educated guess on which two candidates make it through the Dane County executive primary this-coming Tuesday based on a summing up of the race among a strong field of candidates.

The Government Accountability Board is expecting a 10 percent turn-out statewide, and informed officials say the Dane County turn-out ought to be in the 20-to-30 percent range.

One winner will be Rep. Joe Parisi (D-Madison) who is aggressively connecting with liberal constituencies. Parisi has a wide, dedicated machine of supporters, and a campaign that reacts quickly and wisely.

The second winner will be one of the following two candidates [listed in no particular order]:

Dane County Board Chair Scott McDonell (Madison) for the same reasons as Parisi, plus no one will out-work McDonnell in the field. McDonell is the strongest campaigner door-to-door in the less-than-favorable weather in which February primary races are held.

Joe Wineke of Verona, former progressive state senator and Wisconsin Dem chair, who is a speeding dark horse picking up union support and rural backing. Wineke is also seen by many Republicans as acceptable because of his administrative skill set and commitment to small business owners.

Dane County Exec Race Off and Running

The race to fill retiring Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk’s seat has begun as several progressives are jockeying for position to succeed the popular four-term incumbent.

Falk beat GOP-backed Nancy Mistele in the Spring 2009 election that saw Mistele win the popular vote outside of Madison, as Falk crushed Mistele anyway gaining 99,600 votes and 64 percent of the popular vote.

Some electoral numbers won in Dane County for the declared and expected candidates that are drawing attention.

County Board Chair Scott McDonnell: Elected with 415 votes in the Spring 2010

Town of Verona Mayor Jon Hochkammer (moderate Republican): Elected with 1,086 votes

Zach Brandon: About 2,100 total votes in district 7 of the Madison Common Council

Joe Wineke: 13,749 votes in the '98 Congressional primary (3rd)
Joe Wineke: [Estimate] 31,000 votes in 94 State Senate Race

State Rep. Joe Parisi: 168,197 votes out of 213,000 county-wide in the 2000 County Clerk race
(58,000 more than former Dane County DA Brian Blanchard the same year)
Joe Parisi: 131,611 votes County Wide 1996 County Clerk
Joe Parisi Assembly: 20,648 votes (72%) in 2010
Joe Parisi Assembly: 20,707 votes (75%) in 2006

What these numbers mean is unclear, but an energetic campaign should provide nourishment for political junkies in the early months of 2010 in the Spring elections.