Why Scott Walker Loses by a Few Points on June 5

Paul Fanlund has a column in which he wonders if Scott Walker's oft-repeated fiction that state workers [and their "union bosses"] are the cause of economic family crises is an effective pitch to the casual 20 percent of Wisconsin voters who may have not made up their minds on Walker.

Fanlund interviews Wisconsin's own Charles Franklin—the renown electoral analyst, scholar and co-founder of Pollster.com—who asks if Wisconsin's partisan swing (19 percentage points) from 2008 to 2010 could really represent some "enduring ideological tipping point."

I read Fanlund's quotes from Professor Franklin as dripping with sarcasm. [Maybe I'm wrong.]

As Franklin knows, the composition of the 2008 presidential general election electorate and the 2010 (gubernatorial and U.S. Senate) electorate are vastly different in numerous respects.

In 2008, Wisconsin has the second highest turnout at 72.4%, second to Minnesota. (McDonald. George Mason U.)

In 2010, a lot of more people stayed home in Wisconsin, and turn-out was 52.1%, fifth highest in the country. (McDonald. George Mason U.) A lot as in 825,755 less people didn't vote.

Recall movement

Most people remain depoliticized, and were not seized by spasms of ideological right-wing views modeled after the Koch brothers and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) between 2008 and 2010.

To give you an idea of the power of the Recall movement, consider that some 21.6 percent of the voting-eligible population (900,939) signed the Recall Scott Walker petition during the 60-day recall period over the Holidays, begun on November 15.

Scott Walker won the 2010 election in Wisconsin with 1,128,941 votes (52.25%) to Tom Barrett's 1,004,303 votes (46.48%).  Take Walker's 52.25% of the 52.1% turnout and you have his winning number in 2010.

President Obama won the 2008 election in Wisconsin with 1,677,211 (56.22%) to John McCain's 1,262,393(42.31%).

Election Numbers

You swing three points from 2010 [some from folks who voted from Obama, some who stayed home in 2010, and some who cannot stand Scott Walker now] and you have a different winner today.

That Walker awoke a sleeping giant in organized labor is axiomatic to any analysis. Walker really did drop a bomb on working families and anyone who has done field work can tell you feelings against Walker run deep.

And many of these voters stayed home in 2010. The same won't happen again.

A few things to consider, most of which could be game changers.

Many professional service workers—lawyers, accountants, financial advisers, consultants, real estate advisers and so on—did not sign the Recall petition or vote, but Walker's rejecting $800-million in federal funds alone is widely regarded as foolish. Many of these people will vote against Walker in the general recall election in June.

Anecdotes, but many people with whom I have spoken working in the field with the recall movement have each, to a person, said they have encountered Republicans who will vote against Walker.

The biggest gripe is often not policy from these people, but rather that Walker didn't have to pursue his goals in the way he went about it, what Fanlund wrote in a different column, "Walker's toxic brand of political fundamentalism." Seriously, no one likes an ass, and a dishonest one at that.

God and Gop

Walker who acts like he gets his orders from God is a turn-off to a more modest Wisconsin culture. "Walker said that God has told him what to do every step of the way, including about what jobs to take, whom to marry, and when to run for governor," writes Matthew Rothschild, though presumably the Almighty didn't tell Walker and Tim Russell to set up his secret router and e-mail system in the Milwaukee County Executive's office. That was the work of the desolate one.

Field work

The one thing the recall movement has in electoral advantage is field work. Whether it's 20 percent or five to six percent of undecideds, there are 10,000s of people who will knock on doors, call, drive voters, bake cookies, enter data, ID supporters, and do everything it takes to win an election.

Milwaukee county, which underperformed horribly in 2010 for the Democratic Party, will make a huge difference, and Walker has managed to, in the words of Tommy Thompson, stick it those guys. Milwaukee, Kenosha and Racine together might actually be enough because Walker failed [for now] in obstructing voters with the GOP voter-control project.

But battling Walker in Fond du Lac, Dodge, Wood, Marathon and Green Lake counties may also make the difference, together with racking up huge margins in traditionally progressive-voting counties: Dane, Bayfield ... .

Jobs

Jobs will be the killer issue in a target-rich environment. Wisconsin remains dead-last in jobs lost.

Women

I can only hope women as a demographic are as disgusted by the GOP war on women as really most people are. This is another game changer, potentially.

Walker

Walker will of course rely on the religious right to turn out Republican voters, ignoring the fact that many of Walker's closest former top aides are gay. That's one thing I'll never get, a gay Republican.

As of April 23, Scott Walker has $19,747,054.10 to spend on more lies; and this guy is a pathological liar. We can count on as much as three times that to be spent by the Koch brothers and other big-money interests.

To conclude, one must note even if Walker is not charged before June 5 in the criminal John Doe probe, reading the criminal complaints of those who are should be sufficient. These top aides of Walker's whom Walker refuses to publicly instruct to tell the truth are involved in the rat's nest of illegal and shady dealing that is the 2010 Walker campaign for governor run out of the Milwaukee County Executive office. We need to get the word out.

One final note. We have not read much about Scott Walker setting up his criminally charged friends—multiple Kelly Rindfleisch, Tim Russell and Kevin Kavanaugh—as paid employees of non-profits intended to help veterans and their families. This news of betrayal is an outrage and should get wide coverage. Stealing from veterans. I'm on it, and so are a lot of my veteran friends. We won't count on WTMJ and Charlie Sykes who condone this crap.

As Walker once said about a proven-innocent women who was a civil service employee (Walker's gang are all political appointees) when Gov. Doyle was governor: "Unfortunately we have a Governor and administration that condones unethical and illegal behavior. The people of Wisconsin deserve better."

Absurd.

But to the extent this ethic is applied to Walker, he'll lose big.