Sep 25, 2009

No GOP Cong Takeover, Says Political Sage

Update: NYT/CBS Poll: 30 percent favorable view of GOP in Congress; 47 percent favorable view of Dems. By margin of 52 percent to 27 percent, Americans say Obama better on health care reform than GOP. Hope everyone gets past the misleading headline, "In Poll, Public Wary of Obama on War and Health."

Those fretting that a rightwing takeover of Congress in 2010 is on the horizon ought not to worry.

So says Alan I. Abramowitz in his Why a Repeat of 1994 Is Highly Unlikely.

Abramowitz has been spot-on is his bold political predictions the last several election cycles, most notably predicting the 2008 Democratic rout of Republicans. He notes that today's electorate is very different than it was in 1994.

Writes Abramowitz:

But while there are some important similarities between the current political situation and the circumstances that preceded the 1994 Republican victory, there are important differences between the makeup of the American electorate now and the makeup of the American electorate then, differences that make a repeat of the 1994 outcome highly unlikely.

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