Patrick Cockburn has an insightful analysis from Iraq. See Special Report from the Battlefields, Who's Actually Winning in Iraq?
Bush's best hope for his illegal act of aggression: An Iranian-aligned Shia government tolerating a long-term American presence in Iraq as a bulwark against Sunni and Shia rivals.
...Paradoxically, the Shia governing parties in Baghdad, ISCI and Dawa, have traditionally had closer links with Iran than the Sadrists. ISCI was founded by the Iranians in Tehran in 1982 to be their puppet if they succeeded in defeating Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war. It is still heavily influenced by them, but at the end of the day neither ISCI nor the Sadrists want the Americans nor the Iranians to treat Iraq as a client state...
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