Mar 22, 2012

Larry J. Sabato Rates Wisconsin's U.S. Senate Race a Toss-up

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley:
Wisconsin — The dynamic in the Badger State has remained static for months. If ex-Gov Tommy Thompson is the Republican nominee, he probably starts off favored against Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the general election. If not, Baldwin could move ahead. The Republican field, already featuring Thompson, ex-Rep. Mark Neumann and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, recently grew when businessman Eric Hovde jumped into the race. He’ll try to recreate the success of Sen. Ron Johnson (R), a one-time political novice who defeated ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in 2010. Even though the Badger State’s presidential primary is coming up on April 3, the Senate primary won’t be until Aug. 14. TOSS UP
A toss-up points to the critical impact of:
  • Candidate field operations (advantage, Baldwin)
  • Voter suppression program (unknown - GOP obstruction law may not be in effect)

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