Oct 6, 2009

Stocks Rallying, Economy Dying

We need some drama, President Obama.

From the Global Economic Crisis, health care reform to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it appears your end-game is half-measures and posturing.

This manages to inflame the always combustible rightwing, piss off the left wing, and give Joe Six Pack a vague idea that you're just another politician during extraordinarily difficult times. Bad politics, bad policy.

From Tech Ticker: Bulls Ignore Warnings from Soros, Roubini and Other Skeptics by Aaron Task:
Coincidentally (or not), the past few days has brought a raft of dour comments from the few analysts who correctly predicted the credit crisis before it became obvious to everyone.

Here's a sample:

George Soros says the U.S. banking system is "basically bankrupt," in sharp contrast to Goldman's upgrade of the large banks.

Nouriel Roubini says "markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast," and will retreat when economic news refutes the V-shaped consensus, Bloomberg reports.

Joseph Stiglitz told Bloomberg TV investors have become 'irrationally exuberant' about prospects for a recovery. "There's a lot of risk...ahead of some big bumps."

Christopher Whalen tells Tech Ticker the fourth-quarter will be a "bloodbath" for banking as says stocks rallying while the "real economy is dying" is not a healthy sign.

Meredith Whitney warned about the likelihood of a second credit crunch, especially for small businesses, a WSJ op-ed last week.

Meanwhile, stocks are now 15%-20% overvalued based on Robert Shiller's long-term cyclically adjusted P/E ratio and Henry reports that Wall Street analysts are forecasting a return to record profit margins, which are only likely if more layoffs are coming, which begs the question: How can the economy maintain forward momentum if unemployment continues to rise and consumers remain in lock-down mode?

The fact there's so much to worry about is probably good news for bulls from a short-term perspective, as I wrote here. But long-term investors - as well as traders sitting on fat profits - would be wise to heed these collective warnings.

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