Oct 11, 2008

Charles Schwab: Depression Fears Overblown

We have heard the bromide: 911 changed everything!

For instance, “…9/11 changed everything for us. 9/11 forced us to think in new ways about threats to the United States, about our vulnerabilities, about who our enemies were, about what kind of military strategy we needed in order to defend ourselves.” (Remarks by Vice President Cheney at McChord Air Force Base, Tacoma, Washington,December 22, 2003).

We know that the assertion is ludicrous in the face of unprecedented tax cuts for the super-rich and the utter lack of mobilization and asked sacrifice from the American people for this alleged monolithic threat.

You ask for sacrifice and people start asking a lot of questions, which is the last thing Bush and Cheney wanted.

How about the Wall Street multi-day meltdown? "The Dow and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index both closed down 18 percent for the week," reports the NYT.

Has the last few weeks changed everything and are we heading for a new depression?

Our trust in the Bush administration ripped apart by audacious lies about the "War on Terror," weapons of mass destruction and so forth, Americans wonder vaguely: What the heck is really going on with the economy?

Mark Riepe, Senior Vice President, Schwab Center for Financial Research, offers a view that more optimistic than some, such as RGE Monitor's assessment that the "world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression."

Writes Riepe:

Buffeted by weeks of withering financial news, nearly six out of 10 Americans now believe the U.S. economy is somewhat or very likely to fall into a depression, according to an October 4–5 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll. But while the U.S. economy is not as strong and our financial system isn’t as healthy as it needs to be, we’re nowhere near the types of economic difficulties seen in the depths of the Great Depression—nor does Schwab believe we’re headed there.

For context, consider these two realities. First, the U.S. economy is much stronger today than during the Great Depression. In the 1930s, America was primarily an industrial powerhouse, and industrial production shrank 52% from peak to trough, while gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 27%. As an example, if we assume December 1, 2007, is ultimately declared the start of a recession, you can see below that GDP and industrial production are nowhere near depression levels. Industrial production declines suggest a garden-variety recession, and GDP is still positive (although we don’t expect it to stay that way).

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